World oil demand is on track to rise 2.3 mb/d to 101.7 mb/d in 2023, but this masks the impact of a further weakening of the macroeconomic climate.
Global 4Q23 demand growth has been revised down by almost 400 kb/d, with Europe making up more than half the decline.
The slowdown is set to continue in 2024, with global gains halving to 1.1 mb/d, as GDP growth stays below trend in major economies.
Efficiency improvements and a booming electric vehicle fleet also drag on demand.
US oil supply growth continues to defy expectations, with output shattering the 20 mb/d mark. This, combined with record Brazilian and Guyanese production along with surging Iranian flows will lift world output by 1.8 mb/d to 101.9 mb/d in 2023.
Non-OPEC+ will again drive global gains in 2024, projected at 1.2 mb/d after OPEC+ deepens its voluntary oil cuts.
Refinery margins in Europe and Singapore rebounded marginally in November, but the US Gulf Coast underperformed again, slipping for the third month running.
Weaker diesel and gasoline cracks drove much of the US hub’s decline.
Global crude runs in 4Q23 are expected to be materially weaker than previously estimated on deeper and longer refinery turnarounds, falling 3.6 mb/d m-o-m in October and only slowly recovering to a seasonal peak of 84.2 mb/d by December 2023.
Global observed oil inventories declined by 19.6 mb in October.
Oil product stocks fell for the first time in four months, while crude drew 1.6 mb/d on average.
OECD and non-OECD on-land stocks fell by 18.9 mb and 24.2 mb, respectively, while oil on water built by 23.5 mb.