| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 07:00 | United Kingdom | Retail Sales (YoY) | November | -2.5% | -1.3% | 0.1% |
| 07:00 | United Kingdom | Retail Sales (MoM) | November | 0.0% | 0.4% | 1.3% |
| 07:00 | United Kingdom | GDP, q/q | Quarter III | 0% | 0% | -0.1% |
| 07:00 | United Kingdom | GDP, y/y | Quarter III | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
GBP rose against other major currencies in the European session on Friday as investors weighed a mixed batch of economic data out of the UK.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that its final estimate showed that Britain's gross domestic product (GDP) shrank by 0.1% QoQ in the third quarter compared to a flat QoQ growth in the original estimate. In addition, the ONS lowered its GDP reading for the second quarter, indicating there was no growth in the period compared to the 0.2% QoQ advance previously estimated.
The downwardly revised GDP figures reignited fears of a potential recession in case of negative growth in the fourth quarter. However, a separate report from the ONS, featuring a larger-than-anticipated 1.3% MoM gain in the UK retail sales in November, offset these fears as it boosted optimism about the potential November GDP figure.
Against this backdrop, markets only slightly built their expectations of the policy easing by the Bank of England.
Currently, markets are pricing in about 145 basis points of rate cuts by the BoE in 2024, according to Bloomberg. That implies five rate decreases by 25 basis points and an 80% chance of the sixth move.