Heading into 2023, many economists have stated that a recession is approaching. But 2023 is coming to an end, and the predicted economic downturn did not arrive. But an economic decline may still be in the forecast, experts say. Some forecasts are optimistic that a recession can be avoided in 2024. Bank of America is predicting a soft landing rather than a recession, despite downside risks.
Meanwhile, the results of a survey conducted by the National Association for Business Economics showed that 76% of economists believe that the probability of a recession in the United States in the next 12 months is 50% or less. Of the economists who forecast a recession, 40% said it would start in the first quarter, while 34% expect a recession to start in the second quarter.
“Our baseline scenario is that the United States will experience a moderate recession. This recession, which may turn out to be the ”mildest in history," may begin in the second quarter," Raymond James experts said.
To that point, 56% of people recently surveyed by MassMutual said the economy is already in a recession.
According to the latest forecasts from the Congressional Budget Office, U.S. GDP growth will slow to 1.5% in 2024, and the unemployment rate will rise to 4.4%, compared with an average of 3.9% this quarter. Meanwhile, the forecast for economic growth for 2023 was revised up to 2.5% from 0.9% in July. CBO said the growth slowdown expected for next year, and a reduction in its previous projection for 2025 growth to 2.2% from 2.4% seen in July, was due to slower-than-projected growth in consumer spending, investment and exports.