A report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) showed that в 4-м квартале global oil demand growth slowed to 1.7 mb/d y-o-y– well below the 3.2 mb/d rate registered during 2Q23-3Q23
Global oil demand growth is projected to ease from 2.3 mb/d in 2023 to 1.2 mb/d in 2024
World oil supply is forecast to rise by 1.5 mb/d to a new high of 103.5 mb/d, fuelled by record-setting output from the US, Brazil, Guyana and Canada.
Non-OPEC+ production will dominate growth this year, accounting for close to 1.5 mb/d.
OPEC+ supply is expected to hold broadly steady on last year, assuming extra voluntary cuts that started this month are phased out gradually in 2Q24.
Refinery crude throughputs are forecast to average 83.3 mb/d in 2024, overtaking 2018’s record of 82.5 mb/d. However, the disparity between OECD and non-OECD runs will continue to widen, as new capacity starts in the Middle East, Africa, and China.
Global observed oil inventories were down by 8.4 mb in November, to their lowest since July 2022, with crude oil and middle distillates particularly tight.
Oil products decreased by a substantial 24.6 mb, while crude oil rose by 16.2 mb.
Preliminary data suggest that global inventories rose in December, as oil on water surged.
Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have markets on edge at the start of 2024.
Barring significant disruptions to oil flows, the market looks reasonably well supplied in 2024
While OPEC+ supply management policies may tip the oil market into a small deficit at the start of the year, strong growth from non-OPEC+ producers could lead to a substantial surplus if the OPEC+ group’s extra voluntary cuts are unwound in 2Q24.
IEA stands ready to respond decisively if there is a supply disruption and the global oil market requires additional barrels. IEA member countries collectively hold stocks of around 4 billion barrels, including 1.2 billion barrels of government-controlled stocks held exclusively in case of an emergency.