The price of oil rose by 0.6% after rising by about 1.6% in the previous two sessions. Oil is supported by the negative dynamics of the US currency, the continuing geopolitical risk in the Middle East, as well as a weaker-than-expected increase in oil reserves in the United States.
The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) fell by 0.16% to 104.05.
Meanwhile, the media reported that the Houthis attacked two more ships in the southern part of the Red Sea, which was the latest in a series of attacks that led to a significant change in the routes of world trade. The US has promised to launch more strikes against Iranian forces and their proxies in the region.
As for the data, the American Petroleum Institute reported that U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 674,000 barrels last week. Analysts had expected an increase of 1.9 million barrels. Now the focus of investors' attention is shifting to the official data, which will be published by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) at 15:30 GMT. Consensus estimates suggest that oil reserves have increased by 1.7 million barrels. Yesterday, the EIA lowered its forecast for U.S. oil production growth for 2024 by 120,000 barrels per day, to 170,000 barrels per day, which is much less than last year's increase in production by 1.02 million barrels per day. The EIA also predicts that U.S. production will not exceed the December 2023 record (more than 13.3 million barrels per day) until February 2025. This forecast reinforced the arguments that the oil market will be balanced in 2024.
In the longer term, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said that India is expected to be the largest driver of global oil demand growth between 2023 and 2030.
At the same time, expectations of an early easing of the Fed's monetary policy have faded - now swap markets are pricing in just a 21.5% chance of a reduction in March.