The results of a survey published by Bank of America (BofA) showed that in February, optimism among global investors reached a 2-year high, while the S&P 500 index rose above the important psychological level of 5,000 points (for the first time in history) amid enthusiasm about AI and positive corporate earnings. In addition, fund managers no longer expect a recession (for the first time since April 2022).
Fund managers lifted global stocks allocations to a two-year high, BofA said, adding that about 65% of investors forecast a "soft landing" of the economy amid expectations for strong macro and no recession, and only 11% expect a "hard landing" of the economy (compared with 17% in January).
Meanwhile, the share of respondents who now forecast no landing for the economy increased by 12% compared to the last survey (in January), and reached 19%.
Market participants expect that this year the largest Central banks will begin their cycle of monetary policy easing. However, the latest strong US data has not argued in favor of prompt cuts. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a 15.5% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed meeting in March and a 58.1% probability of a rate cut in May.