| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 07:00 | United Kingdom | Average Earnings, 3m/y | December | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.8% |
| 07:00 | United Kingdom | Average earnings ex bonuses, 3 m/y | December | 6.7% | 6% | 6.2% |
| 07:00 | United Kingdom | ILO Unemployment Rate | December | 4.2% | 4% | 3.8% |
| 07:00 | United Kingdom | Claimant count | January | 5.5 | 15.2 | 14.1 |
| 10:00 | Eurozone | ZEW Economic Sentiment | February | 22.7 | 20.1 | 25.0 |
| 10:00 | Germany | ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment | February | 15.2 | 17.4 | 19.9 |
GBP rose against other major currencies in the European session on Tuesday as data showed that the wage growth in the UK eased more than anticipated in the fourth quarter of 2023, prompting investors to trim their bets on rate cuts by the Bank of England (BoE).
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) announced this morning that average earnings excluding bonuses surged 6.2% YoY in the three months through December 2023, decelerating from an upwardly revised 6.7% YoY soar (from +6.6% YoY) in the three months through November. This represented the smallest annual advance in regular earnings since October 2022 (+6.1% YoY) but was above economists’ prediction of 6.0% YoY.
In addition, the ONS data reported that the UK’s jobless rate fell to 3.8% in the final three months of 2023, the lowest level since the three-month period that ended January 2023, surprising economists who had forecast the rate to increase to 4.0% from 3.9% in the three months through November.
Elsewhere, the number of people in work increased by 72,000 in the three months to December, following a revised 108,000 gain in the previous period. This marked the third straight rise in employment.
Overall, the latest data indicated that the UK’s labour market remains tight, justifying the BoE policymakers’ caution against an immediate shift to rate reductions.
According to Bloomberg, markets are now fully pricing in only two 25-basis-point rate decreases in 2024 while seeing a 90% possibility of the third move. The first cut is expected to be approved in August.