| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 00:30 | Australia | Unemployment rate | January | 3.9% | 4% | 4.1% |
| 00:30 | Australia | Changing the number of employed | January | -62.8 | 30 | 0.5 |
| 07:00 | United Kingdom | GDP m/m | December | 0.2% | -0.2% | -0.1% |
| 07:00 | United Kingdom | Business Investment, q/q | Quarter IV | -2.8% | -0.1% | 1.5% |
| 07:00 | United Kingdom | Business Investment, y/y | Quarter IV | 2.6% | 1.1% | 3.7% |
| 07:00 | United Kingdom | GDP, y/y | Quarter IV | 0.2% | 0.1% | -0.2% |
| 07:00 | United Kingdom | GDP, q/q | Quarter IV | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.3% |
During today's Asian trading, the US dollar declined slightly against major currencies, while investors continue to reassess the Fed's monetary policy outlook and prepare for the release of new economic data.
The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) fell by 0.07% to 104.65. As for the data, the January retail sales report and weekly statistics on initial jobless claims will be published today, and tomorrow the producer price index will be released, which may affect the Fed's position on the timing of interest rate cuts. In addition, a number of Fed policymakers are due to speak by the end of the week. Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said yesterday that he does not support the idea of waiting for inflation to reach 2% on a 12-month basis before cutting rates. In his opinion, the reduction in rates should be associated with confidence that inflation is on the way to the target level. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a 10.5% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed meeting in March and a 41.7% probability of a rate cut in May, with 90 basis points of cuts priced in for this year (compared to 110 basis points at the beginning of the week).
The yen rose 0.26% against the US dollar, despite the fact that official data showed that Japan's economy contracted by 0.1% q/q in the 4th quarter. Economists had expected an increase of 0.3%. It was the second straight quarterly drop in output after a revised 0.8% contraction in the July-September quarter. It means Japan surprisingly slipped into recession. Experts said that the technical recession had a minor impact on the yen exchange rate, since the upcoming spring wage negotiations are more important both for the prospects of the Bank of Japan's policy and for the national currency.
The pound fell by 0.15% against the US dollar, as the report showed the UK economy entered recession in the second half of 2023. UK GDP fell by 0.3% in the last three months of 2023 after falling by 0.1% in the third quarter. Economists had expected the economy to contract by 0.1%. In annual terms, GDP fell by 0.2%, offsetting growth in the third quarter (+0.2%). Consensus estimates suggested an increase of 0.1%. Meanwhile, monthly estimates show that GDP fell by 0.1% in December, following growth of 0.2% in November (revised from +0.3%). Economists had expected GDP to fall by 0.2%.