| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 07:00 | Germany | Retail sales, real unadjusted, y/y | January | -1.7% | -1.5% | -1.4% |
| 07:45 | France | CPI, y/y | February | 3.1% | 2.7% | 2.9% |
| 07:45 | France | GDP, q/q | Quarter IV | 0% | 0% | 0.1% |
| 08:00 | Switzerland | Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) | Quarter IV | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% |
| 08:55 | Germany | Unemployment Change | February | 1 | 7 | 11 |
| 08:55 | Germany | Unemployment Rate s.a. | February | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.9% |
EUR traded mixed and little changed against other major currencies in the European session on Thursday as investors digested the preliminary February inflation data from France, Spain and the individual German states.
The flash inflation releases from France and Spain showed easing price increases on an annual basis, though without significant surprises. French data unveiled that the EU-harmonised inflation index decreased from 3.4% in January to 3.1% YoY in February (the lowest level since September 2021), while Spanish data revealed that the EU-harmonised inflation indicator fell from 3.5% YoY to 2.9% YoY. Economists had expected France’s indicator to slip to 3.0% YoY and Spain’s measure to drop to 2.9% YoY.
The inflation data from the six economically important German states also indicated that price pressures in Germany also continued cooling in February. The German nationwide inflation report will be released later in the day.
Overall, today’s data did not change markets’ expectations on the scale and pace of the rate cuts by the European Central Bank in 2024. They are now seeing that the first interest rate decrease will be approved at the ECB’s June meeting and are pricing nearly one percentage point of easing by the end of the year.
Tomorrow, investors will receive the flash February CPI report for the Eurozone as a whole. Economists expect the euro area’s data will show a slowdown in headline CPI rate to 2.5% YoY in February from 2.8% YoY in January and a deceleration of the core measure of inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, to 2.9% YoY from 3.3% YoY.