| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 08:55 | Germany | Manufacturing PMI | February | 45.5 | 42.3 | 42.5 |
| 09:00 | Eurozone | Manufacturing PMI | February | 46.6 | 46.1 | 46.5 |
| 09:30 | United Kingdom | Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing | February | 47 | 47.1 | 47.5 |
| 10:00 | Eurozone | Unemployment Rate | January | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.4% |
| 10:00 | Eurozone | Harmonized CPI, Y/Y | February | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.6% |
| 10:00 | Eurozone | Harmonized CPI ex EFAT, Y/Y | February | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.1% |
EUR appreciated against other major currencies in the European session on Friday as investors weighed when the European Central Bank may begin cutting its interest rates after the Eurozone’s February inflation data came in hotter than anticipated.
Eurostat announced its preliminary estimates suggest that the Eurozone’s consumer price index (CPI) rose 2.6% YoY in February, easing from +2.8% YoY in January, while the core CPI, excluding volatile components such as food and energy, increased 3.1% YoY, moderating from +3.3% in the previous month. However, both readings were above economists’ expectations of 2.5% YoY and 2.9% YoY, respectively.
Meanwhile, Eurostat’s separate release showed that the unemployment rate in the euro area slipped to a record low of 6.4% in January 2024 from 6.5% in December 2023, in line with economists’ forecasts, and S&P Global’s report revealed an unexpected upward revision to the region’s manufacturing PMI for February to 46.5 from a flash reading of 46.1.
Today’s data justified the remarks from the ECB policymakers, arguing not to hurry with interest rate cuts and had little impact on markets’ bets on when the first rate decrease will be approved. According to Bloomberg, the first reduction is still predicted by June, though odds of an action by then have dropped to about 80% from a near certainty as recently as this week.