| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 00:30 | Australia | National Australia Bank's Business Confidence | February | 1 | -1 | |
| 07:00 | Germany | CPI, m/m | February | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| 07:00 | Germany | CPI, y/y | February | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.5% |
| 07:00 | United Kingdom | Average Earnings, 3m/y | January | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.6% |
| 07:00 | United Kingdom | Average earnings ex bonuses, 3 m/y | January | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.1% |
| 07:00 | United Kingdom | ILO Unemployment Rate | January | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.9% |
| 07:00 | United Kingdom | Claimant count | February | 3.1 | 20.3 | 16.8 |
During today's Asian trading, the US dollar consolidated against major currencies, while investors were cautious ahead of the release of US inflation data, which may provide new clues about the timing of the Fed's interest rate cuts.
The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) fell by 0.03% to 102.83. The index remains near a 2-month low amid an increased likelihood that the Fed may start a rate cut by June, especially after comments from Fed Chairman Powell last week reinforced those expectations. Today's U.S. consumer price data will be the next test of market pricing, ahead of the next Fed meeting on March 19-20. Economists expect the overall consumer price index to rise by 0.4% m/m in February - partly due to a jump in gasoline prices - but the annual rate remained at 3.1%. However, the core consumer price index likely eased in February - experts forecasting a monthly increase of 0.3% and a decline in the annual figure to 3.7%. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a 19.0% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed meeting in May, and a 72.0% probability of a rate cut in June.
The yen fell by 0.25% against the US dollar amid statements by Japanese officials that reduced the likelihood of a change in the political position of the Bank of Japan at the March meeting. Bank of Japan Governor Ueda pointed to a slightly gloomier assessment of the country's economy than in January, while Finance Minister Suzuki warned that Japan had not reached the stage where it could declare victory over deflation.
The pound fell by 0.15% against the US dollar, reacting to the labor market data. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said that from November 2023 to January 2024, the unemployment rate (for those aged 16 years and over) increased by 0.1% compared to the previous three-month period, and amounted to 3.9%. Economists had expected the unemployment rate to remain unchanged. The claimant count for February increased by 16,800 on the month and by 85,800 on the year to 1.585 million. Consensus estimates suggested an increase of 20,300. The data also showed that from November 2023 to January 2024, the growth in average total pay (including bonuses) and regular pay (excluding bonuses) was 5.6% per annum (+5.8% in the previous three months) and 6.1% per annum (+6.2% in the previous three months). Economists had expected an increase by 5.7% and 6.2%, respectively. Adjusted for inflation, wage growth in real terms was steady at 1.4% for total pay including bonuses and 1.8% for regular pay excluding bonuses.