| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 07:00 | United Kingdom | GDP, y/y | January | 0% | -0.3% | -0.3% |
| 07:00 | United Kingdom | Manufacturing Production (MoM) | January | 0.8% | 0% | 0% |
| 07:00 | United Kingdom | Industrial Production (MoM) | January | 0.6% | 0% | -0.2% |
| 07:00 | United Kingdom | GDP m/m | January | -0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| 10:00 | Eurozone | Industrial production, (MoM) | January | 1.6% | -1.5% | -3.2% |
| 10:00 | Eurozone | Industrial Production (YoY) | January | 0.2% | -2.9% | -6.7% |
GBP traded flat and mixed against other major currencies in the European session on Wednesday as the UK’s January GDP data came in line with expectations and had little impact on markets’ expectations of future interest rate cuts by the Bank of England.
The latest report from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) revealed that Britain’s economy expanded 0.2% MoM in January 2024, rebounding from a 0.1% MoM contraction in December 2023. The January advance in the UK gross domestic product (GDP), which was undermined by a recovery in the services sector (+0.25 MoM) and construction (+1.1% MoM), matched economists’ predictions.
Compared to January 2023, however, the British GDP shrank 0.3% after a flat YoY performance in December. The reading was in line with economists’ forecasts and marked the fourth successive month of no annual growth. In the three months through January, the economy fell 0.1%, following a 0.3% drop in the final quarter of 2023.
The monthly reading added to confidence the UK economy had emerged from a recession but did not prompt a noticeable recalibration in markets’ bets on the future BoE interest rate moves. They still expect the British central bank to begin reducing rates in August.