Data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed that the consumer price index rose by 3.4% in February (the weakest increase since November 2021) after a similar increase in January. Economists had expected CPI growth to accelerate to 3.5% per annum, fueled by services inflation which remains an area of concern for the Reserve Bank of Australia. Overall, the latest data has strengthened expectations that the central bank's next move will be to cut interest rates, although not in the next few months. Markets price around a 68% chance the RBA will cut its cash rate by 0.25% in August, while a move is fully priced in for September.
The ABS said that a sharp decline in holiday costs helped offset rising prices for fuel, education and clothing. Prices for tradable goods were all but flat in the month, while non-tradable items, which are mainly services, rose 0.3%. The data showed that housing costs increased by 4.6% per annum, while prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages increased by 3.6%. Food price growth slowed to 3.6% per annum from 4.4% per annum in January, and reached its lowest level since January 2022. Prices for alcohol and tobacco products increased by 6.1% per annum, while insurance and financial services jumped by 8.4% per annum. Meanwhile, the core CPI - excluding volatile items and travel - rose by 3.9% per annum after an increase of 4.1% per annum in January. However, inflation remains outside the RBA's target range of 2-3%.