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02.04.2024

European session review: EUR weakens following German states’ flash CPI figures for March

TimeCountryEventPeriodPrevious valueForecastActual
07:55GermanyManufacturing PMIMarch42.541.641.9
08:00EurozoneManufacturing PMIMarch46.545.746.1
08:30United KingdomPurchasing Manager Index Manufacturing March47.549.950.3


EUR depreciated against most of its major rivals in the European session on Tuesday as investors digested the preliminary inflation data for March from major states of Germany, the euro area’s largest economy.

The flash March CPI prints from six economically important German states - Baden Wuerttemberg (2.3% in March compared to 2.7% in February), Bavaria (2.3% compared to 2.6%), Brandenburg (2.8% compared to 3.5%), Hesse (1.6% compared to 2.1%), North Rhine-Westphalia (2.3% compared to 2.6%), and Saxony (2.5% compared to 3.0%) - showed further easing in annual price increases, implying that national inflation continued its downward trajectory last month. 

The flash March inflation readings for Germany will be published later in the day (12:00 GMT), just a day before the flash CPI figures for the entire Eurozone are set to be released. Economists expect the euro area’s headline inflation rate was unchanged at 2.6% YoY in March and the core measure slowed to 3.0% YoY from 3.1% YoY in February.

Recent remarks from the European Central Bank’s policymakers indicate growing support for the view that interest rate cuts will come this year, with a June meeting seen as the most likely time for the first move. However, the officials continue to stress the necessity of clear evidence that inflation is returning to the 2% goal before the reduction. 


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