| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 00:30 | Australia | Trade Balance | February | 10.058 | 10.4 | 7.280 |
| 06:00 | Germany | Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) | February | -11.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 06:45 | France | Industrial Production, m/m | February | -1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
During today's Asian trading, the US dollar rose slightly against major currencies, retreating from a 2-week low, while market participants monitored geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and awaited the release of US labor market data, which may cause a reassessment of the prospects for easing the Fed's monetary policy.
The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) rose by 0.10% to 104.30. Yesterday, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Kashkari, said that a rate cut may not be necessary this year if inflation continues to stall. Officials, including Fed Chairman Powell, continue to stress the need for additional discussions and data collection before interest rates are lowered. The market is focused on the release of the monthly U.S. employment report later today. Economists expect employment to continue to grow in March, albeit at a slower pace than in the previous month - by 200,000 versus 275,000 in February, while wage growth slowed to 4.1% year-on-year from 4.3% in February. If the data turns out to be stronger than expected, it will strengthen the Fed's arguments in favor of delaying interest rate cuts until at least the third quarter. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a 8.5% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed meeting in May, and a 64.9% probability of a rate cut in June (compared to 62.3% yesterday).
The yen rose against the US dollar, briefly reaching a 2-week high, helped by increased demand for safe haven assets, as well as new warnings from the Japanese authorities. Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki reiterated the government's determination to take appropriate measures against the sharp fall in the yen. Meanwhile, the head of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, said that the central bank could "respond with monetary policy" if the depreciation of the yen affects the country's economy in a way that is difficult to ignore. Ueda also said that inflation is likely to accelerate "from summer to autumn" as a sharp increase in wages will lead to higher prices, which is the most convincing hint that another interest rate hike is possible in the coming months.