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12.04.2024

European session review: USD strengthens as investors re-price Fed rate cut expectations

TimeCountryEventPeriodPrevious valueForecastActual
06:00GermanyCPI, m/mMarch0.4%0.4%0.4%
06:00United KingdomManufacturing Production (MoM) February-0.2%0.1%1.2%
06:00GermanyCPI, y/y March2.5%2.2%2.2%
06:00United KingdomIndustrial Production (MoM)February-0.3%0%1.1%
06:00United KingdomGDP m/mFebruary0.3%0.1%0.1%
06:45FranceCPI, m/mMarch0.9%0.2%0.2%


USD gained against most of its major counterparts in the European session on Friday amid raised bets that the Federal Reserve will start rate cutting later than initially thought.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), measuring the U.S. currency's value relative to a basket of foreign currencies, jumped 062% from the previous close to 105.94.

A dramatic re-pricing of the Fed rate forecasts occurred after Wednesday’s release of the hotter-than-expected U.S. March inflation report. Now, markets expect the first rate reduction by the Fed will likely come at the Fed’s September meeting - three months later than anticipated at the beginning of the week.

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank confirmed yesterday that the first decrease in its interest rates might be approved in the summer, indicating a sharp deceleration in inflation and weak economic growth in the euro area. The ECB officials sent similar comments previously, mentioning June as a likely start for rate reductions.

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