According to the report from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), the unemployment rate stabilized at a 2.5-year high in August, with employment growing solidly and job market participation remaining at record levels. Overall, the latest data has reduced the likelihood of the RBA easing monetary policy in the near term.
The data showed that the unemployment rate was 4.2%, confirming economists' forecasts. The participation rate was steady, at 67.1%, while monthly hours worked in all jobs increased by 0.4%, to 1.962 million. The number of unemployed individuals dropped by 10 500, to 627 000. The ABS also said that the number of employees rose by 47 500 after an increase of 48 900 in July (revised from +58 200). Consensus estimates suggested an increase of only 25 000. Part-time employment increased by 50 600, to 4.48 million, while full-time employment decreased by 3 100, to 9.98 million.
The relative strength of the labor market remains, despite the fact that official interest rates remain high, consumer spending is sharply declining, and the number of business bankruptcies has increased significantly over the past year. The economy is also close to recession, with GDP growth in the second quarter being the weakest since the early 1990s, with the exception of the pandemic period. Nevertheless, it is unlikely that the current situation will force the Central Bank to lower interest rates in the near future. The next RBA meeting is scheduled for Tuesday, September 24.