Data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that the GDP fell by 0.1% in October after a similar decline in September. Economists expected a 0.1% increase. Meanwhile, over the three-month period (through October), the economy expanded by 0.1% compared with the three months to July. Services output was the main contributor to the growth in the three months to October, increasing by 0.1%. While construction also grew by 0.4%, these were partially offset by a 0.3% fall in production output.
On an annual basis, GDP grew by 1.3% in October after an increase of 1.0% in September. This was the strongest growth since June 2023. Consensus estimates suggested an increase of 1.6%.
In November, the Bank of England trimmed its annual growth forecast for 2024 to 1% from 1.25% but predicted a stronger 2025 with 1.5% growth, reflecting a short-term boost to the economy from the big-spending budget plans.
The ONS said that services output is estimated to have shown no growth in October. Of the 14 subsectors, 7 had increased output, 1 showed no growth, and 6 saw output decline. The largest positive contribution in the services sector came from the information and communication subsector, where output rose by 0.9% in the month, following a fall of 2.0% in September. Growth of 0.8% in transportation and storage gave the next largest positive contribution at the subsector level in October. This was driven by warehousing and support activities for transportation, which grew by 2.5%. Output in consumer-facing services decreased by 0.6%, following growth of 0.4% in September. Food and beverage service activities was the largest contributor to the decrease at the industry level, with output falling by 2.0%. There was a rise of 1.1% in accommodation, which was the largest positive contributor to consumer-facing services in the month.
Meanwhile, industrial production fell by 0.6% after falling by 0.5% in September. Economists had expected an increase of 0.3%. Manufacturing production also declined by 0.6% after falling by 1.0% in September. Consensus estimates suggested an increase of 0.2%.