| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 07:00 | United Kingdom | Industrial Production (MoM) | October | -0.5% | 0.3% | -0.6% |
| 07:00 | United Kingdom | Manufacturing Production (MoM) | October | -1% | 0.2% | -0.6% |
| 07:00 | Germany | Trade Balance (s.a.), bln | October | 16.9 | 16.1 | 13.4 |
| 07:00 | United Kingdom | GDP m/m | October | -0.1% | 0.1% | -0.1% |
| 07:00 | United Kingdom | GDP, y/y | October | 1% | 1.6% | 1.3% |
| 07:45 | France | CPI, m/m | November | 0.3% | -0.1% | -0.1% |
| 07:45 | France | CPI, y/y | November | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.3% |
During today's Asian trading, the US dollar rose moderately against major currencies, reaching its highest level since November 26. Overall, since the beginning of the week, the US dollar has risen by 1.05% (the largest increase since mid-November), as expectations have increased that the Fed will take a patient approach to further reductions after the December meeting.
The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) rose by 0.21% to 107.18. Yesterday, the index added 0.25%, despite stronger-than-expected U.S. producer price data, while a rise in unemployment claims showed the job market gradually cooling in line with expectations. Experts said that recent comments from Fed policymakers and fresh economic data signaled that progress towards achieving the inflation target has slowed and the economy has continued to perform, so the Central Bank can afford a more cautious approach to policy easing in 2025. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a 96.4% probability of a 0.25% rate cut in December (compared to 95.5% the day before), while the probability of an additional rate cut in January is 22.7%.
The pound fell by 0.35% against the US dollar, reaching its lowest level since December 2 on the back of disappointing UK GDP data, which could prompt traders to attach a greater chance to the prospect of faster rate cuts by the Bank of England next year. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said that the GDP fell by 0.1% in October after a similar decline in September. Economists expected a 0.1% increase. Meanwhile, over the three-month period (through October), the economy expanded by 0.1% compared with the three months to July. On an annual basis, GDP grew by 1.3% in October after an increase of 1.0% in September. This was the strongest growth since June 2023. Consensus estimates suggested an increase of 1.6%. In November, the Bank of England trimmed its annual growth forecast for 2024 to 1% from 1.25% but predicted a stronger 2025 with 1.5% growth, reflecting a short-term boost to the economy from the big-spending budget plans.