| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 06:00 | Germany | CPI, m/m | March | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| 06:00 | United Kingdom | Manufacturing Production (MoM) | February | -1% | 0.2% | 2.2% |
| 06:00 | Germany | CPI, y/y | March | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.2% |
| 06:00 | United Kingdom | Industrial Production (MoM) | February | -0.5% | 0% | 1.5% |
| 06:00 | United Kingdom | GDP m/m | February | 0% | 0.1% | 0.5% |
| 06:00 | United Kingdom | GDP, y/y | February | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.4% |
| 07:00 | Switzerland | SECO Consumer Climate | March | -34 | -32 | -35 |
| 09:45 | Eurozone | ECB President Lagarde Speaks | | | | |
GBP appreciated against most of its major rivals in the European session on Friday, as investors digested the UK’s February GDP data and continued to monitor the escalating U.S.-China trade tensions.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that the UK gross domestic product (GDP) grew 0.5% MoM in February after an upwardly revised flat performance in January. The February reading was well above economists’s forecast of a 0.1% MoM advance and marked the strongest monthly expansion in the British economy since March 2024 (+0.6% MoM).
Stronger-than-anticipated UK GBP data brought welcome news for the Labour government, signalling renewed economic momentum and a likely encouraging rebound in the first quarter. The recovery, however, faces growing risks as the Trump administration unleashes a flurry of tariffs that threaten to disrupt the global economic landscape.
While most of U.S. President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs were put on pause for 90 days, a baseline 10% tariff rate went into effect and the tariff rate for China was raised to 145%, sparking reprisals from Beijing this morning in the form of a further hike in its tariffs on U.S. goods - to 125% from 84%. Economists warn that the trade uncertainty could undermine Britain’s growth as well.
Following the UK February GDP report, markets slightly lowered their bets on a faster policy easing by the Bank of England. Nonetheless, they still see at least three more 25-basis-point interest-rate decreases this year.