National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) informed on Wednesday
that it now sees the UK’s GDP to remain flat in the fourth quarter of 2023. In November, NIESR
projected the British economy to expand 0.1 per cent in the fourth quarter.
NIESR noted that today’s ONS data, suggesting that the British GDP shrank
0.3 per cent m-o-m in October, was worse than its previous forecast of a 0.1 per cent m-o-m contraction. In the three months to October, Britain’s economy was flat q-o-q, also worse than
NIESR’s previous projection of a 0.1 per cent q-o-q growth.
“These data suggest that economic activity is subdued and may be taken
as a sign at tomorrow’s MPC meeting that no further monetary tightening is
needed, despite yesterday’s labour market data remaining rather strong,” NIESR’s
associate economist Paula Bejarano Carbo noted.
According to NIESR updated estimates, the UK’s GDP will likely increase
0.1 per cent m-o-m in November and rise 0.2 m-o-m both in December.
In the first quarter of 2024, the country’s GDP is expected to grow by
0.3 per cent q-o-q.