| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 07:00 | Germany | Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) | November | -3.8% | 1% | 0.3% |
| 07:00 | Germany | Trade Balance (s.a.), bln | November | 17.8 | 17.9 | 20.4 |
| 07:30 | Switzerland | Consumer Price Index (YoY) | December | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.7% |
During today's Asian trading, the US dollar consolidated against major currencies as investors were cautious ahead of the release of US inflation data, which will help clarify the prospects for easing the Fed's monetary policy.
The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) fell by 0.01% to 102.40. One of the key events of this week will be the publication of the US CPI report (on Thursday). Overall consumer inflation was moderate in October and November. The CPI was unchanged in October and increased by only 0.1% in November. A significant reduction in energy prices, such as gasoline, has helped to contain overall inflation. Excluding food and energy prices, the core consumer price index has been growing by 0.2–0.3% m/m over the past few months, which is lower than the rates previously observed in 2023. Overall, the December CPI report is expected to show that inflation continues to slow in line with a trend that will allow the FOMC to begin lowering rates soon. Experts predict that the overall CPI increased by 0.2%, and the core CPI rose by 0.3%. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a 60.9% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed meeting in March 2024 and a 94.4% probability of a rate cut in May 2024, with less than 140 basis points of cuts priced in for this year.
The yen rose 0.25% against the US dollar, while trading was thinned in Asia with Japan out on a holiday. Last week, the yen fell by 2.55%, recording the largest weekly decline since June.