National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) announced on Friday
that it now expects the UK’s GDP to be flat in the fourth quarter of 2023 and
to expand 0.2 per cent in the first quarter of 2024. “These forecasts remain
broadly consistent with the longer-term trend of low, but stable economic
growth in the United Kingdom,” NIESR added. In December, NIESR saw the British
economy to remain unchanged in the fourth quarter.
The research institute noted that today’s ONS data, suggesting that the
British economy grew 0.3 per cent m-o-m in November were better than its December
prediction of a 0.1 per cent m-o-m advance. In the three months to November, Britain’s economy
shrank 0.2 per cent q-o-q, worse than NIESR’s previous forecast of a 0.1 per
cent q-o-q decline.
According to NIESR updated estimates, the UK’s GDP will likely be flat
m-o-m both in December 2023 and January 2024 and then increase 0.1 per cent
m-o-m in both in February and March.