The Conference
Board (CB) informed on Monday that its Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the US slipped 0.1
per cent m-o-m in December 2023 to 103.1 (2016=100), following an unrevised
0.5 m-o-m drop in November.
Economists had expected
a fall of 0.3 per cent m-o-m.
The report also
revealed the Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the US increased 0.2 per cent
m-o-m to 111.7 in December after an unrevised 0.2 per cent m-o-m rise in the previous month. Meanwhile,
its Lagging Economic Index (LAG) for the US decreased 0.2 per cent m-o-m to 118.4,
following an unrevised
0.5 per cent m-o-m surge in November.
Commenting on
the latest data, Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle
Indicators at the Conference Board, noted that the December drop in the US LEI continued
to signal underlying weakness in the US economy. She also unveiled that six out
of ten leading indicators made positive contributions to the LEI in the final
month of 2023, but these improvements were more than offset by weak conditions
in manufacturing, the high interest-rate environment, and low consumer
confidence. “Overall, we expect GDP growth to turn negative in Q2 and Q3 of
2024 but begin to recover late in the year,” Zabinska-La Monica added.