According to the preliminary report from Eurostat, in the 4th quarter, the eurozone economy stagnated after shrinking by 0.1% in the 3rd quarter. Economists had expected GDP to fall by 0.1%. Thus, the eurozone economy narrowly avoided a technical recession. As for the European Union countries, GDP was also unchanged after a decline by 0.1% in the previous quarter.
In annual terms, the growth of the eurozone economy accelerated to 0.1% from 0.0% in the 3rd quarter, while consensus estimates suggested that GDP would remain unchanged. Meanwhile, the GDP of the European Union countries grew by 0.2% after being unchanged in the 3rd quarter.
Eurostat said that among EU countries, Portugal (+0.8%) recorded the highest increase compared to the previous quarter, followed by Spain (+0.6%), Belgium and Latvia (both +0.4%). Declines were recorded in Ireland (-0.7%), Germany and Lithuania (both -0.3%). The year on year growth rates were positive for six countries and negative for five.
The latest survey of professional forecasters (SPF) showed that respondents expected GDP growth of 0.6% in 2024, 1.3% in 2025 and 1.4% in 2026. The expectations for 2024 and 2025 were revised down by 0.3% and 0.2% respectively. Respondents expected a slight contraction in real GDP in the final quarter of 2023, followed by a slow recovery of economic activity throughout 2024. Longer-term growth expectations remained unchanged at 1.3%.