| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 06:30 | France | GDP, Y/Y | Quarter IV | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.7% |
| 07:00 | Switzerland | Trade Balance | December | 2.3 | 3.7 | 1.4 |
| 09:00 | Germany | GDP (YoY) | Quarter IV | -0.3% | -0.2% | -0.2% |
| 09:00 | Germany | GDP (QoQ) | Quarter IV | 0.0% | -0.3% | -0.3% |
| 10:00 | Eurozone | GDP (YoY) | Quarter IV | 0% | 0% | 0.1% |
| 10:00 | Eurozone | GDP (QoQ) | Quarter IV | -0.1% | -0.1% | 0% |
EUR strengthened against most of its major counterparts in the European session on Tuesday as investors continued to weigh the prospects of interest rate changes by the European Central Bank, considering the latest slew of economic data from the Eurozone and the rate-setters' remarks.
Eurostat reported its preliminary estimates showed that the euro area’s gross domestic product (GDP) was unchanged QoQ in the fourth quarter, following a 0.1% QoQ decrease in the previous quarter. The reading was better than economists’ forecast of a 0.1% QoQ decline, allowing the Eurozone to avoid a recession at the end of 2023. Among the bloc’s member states, the German economy, the largest one in the region, contracted 0.3% QoQ, matching economists’ expectations while Portugal and Spain demonstrated solid advances - of 0.8% QoQ and 0.6% QoQ, respectively.
Meanwhile, the European Commission announced its surveys found that consumer confidence sharply eased in January (to -16.1, down from 15.5 in December 2023), while consumer inflation expectations jumped to a four-month high (to 11.9, up from 10.5 in the previous month).
The ECB’s policymaker Boris Vujčić noted that the latest GDP data supports the view that the Eurozone’s economy is facing a soft landing scenario. The official also added that, in his view, April or June timing for a rate cut is not a big difference.
With the latest releases/statements in focus, markets are fully pricing in a rate cut by the ECB in April.