Figures from the National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT) showed that retail sales fell by 0.1% in December after increasing by 0.4% in November. Economists had expected an increase by 0.2%. Sales of non-food products declined by 0.2%, while food sales also fell by 0.2%. Meanwhile, over the three-month period (through December), retail sales rose by 0.3%.
On an annual basis, retail sales increased by 0.3% in December, slowing sharply compared to November (+1.5%). It was the 33rd consecutive increase. Consensus estimates suggested an increase of 1.0% per annum. Food sales grew by 2.2%, while non-food fell by 1.1%.
The data also showed that in December, large-scale distribution was up 1.9% per annum, small-scale distribution was down 1.2% per annum and non-store retail sales decreased by 3.3% per annum. Meanwhile, online sales grew by 1.1% compared with December 2022.
In its latest forecast, the Bank of Italy estimated GDP will slow down further in 2024, down to 0.6% from 0.7% in 2023. It is forecasting a slightly higher GDP growth of 0.7% for 2024, and 1.2% in 2025. One of the key drivers of this growth is expected to be internal demand, mainly private consumption, and the rate of inflation could support this.