The Conference
Board reported on Tuesday that its Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the US dropped
0.4 per cent m-o-m in January 2024 to 102.7 (2016=100), following a downwardly revised 0.2 m-o-m slip (from -0.1 per cent m-o-m) in December
2023.
Economists had forecast
a decline of 0.3 per cent m-o-m.
The report also
revealed the Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the US rose by 0.2 per cent
m-o-m to 112.1 in January after an unrevised 0.2 per cent m-o-m gain in the previous month. Meanwhile,
its Lagging Economic Index (LAG) for the US jumped 0.4 per cent m-o-m to 118.6,
following a downwardly revised 0.4 per cent m-o-m decrease
(from -0.2 per cent m-o-m) in December.
Commenting on
the latest data, Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle
Indicators at the Conference Board, noted that the U.S. LEI declined further in
January, as weekly hours worked in manufacturing continued to decrease and the
yield spread remained negative. She added, however, that six out of ten
components of the LEI were positive contributors over the past six-month period,
so the leading indicator currently does not signal recession ahead. "While no longer forecasting a recession in 2024, we do expect real GDP
growth to slow to near zero per cent over Q2 and Q3," Zabinska-La Monica said.