| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 07:00 | Germany | Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey | April | -28.8 | -27.9 | -27.4 |
USD depreciated against most of its major counterparts in the European session on Tuesday as investors waited for a slate of U.S. economic data releases, which could test bets on a June rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), measuring the U.S. currency's value relative to a basket of foreign currencies, fell 0.16% from the previous close to 104.06.
Later in the day, investors will receive U.S. house price statistics for January, the durable goods orders data for February and the Conference Board’s consumer confidence survey for March.
These publications will be followed by Thursday’s releases of the final estimate on the U.S. GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2023, weekly jobless claims data and pending home sales statistics for February.
However, the key event of the week will be the release of the February on Friday, when markets in Europe and the U.S. will be closed in observance of Good Friday. The report contains the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index.
The core PCE price index is expected to show a 0.3% MoM rise in February, slightly slower than a 0.4% MoM gain recorded in the previous month, and a 2.8% YoY surge, unchanged compared to January. The expectations generally conform with the Fed chairman Powell’s remark, which he made after the U.S. central bank’s March 19-20 meeting, noting that inflation is “moving down gradually on a sometimes bumpy road toward 2%”.
The Federal Reserve policymakers’ updated projections revealed last week that they continue to see three interest rate reductions this year even as recent U.S. inflation data came in higher than anticipated.
Markets’ projections also suggest three rate decreases for 2024, with the first move coming in June.
Stronger-than-expected economic data, specifically hotter-than-forecast core PCE price index figures, could prompt investors to trim their expectations of a June rate decrease.