| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 06:00 | Germany | Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) | February | 1.3% | 0.3% | 2.1% |
| 06:00 | Germany | Trade Balance (s.a.), bln | February | 27.5 | 25.5 | 21.4 |
During today's Asian trading, the US dollar rose slightly against major currencies, while market participants are preparing for the publication of US inflation data, which will allow them to better assess the prospects for the Fed's monetary policy.
The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) rose by 0.07% to 104.37. A tight labor market and limited progress in combating inflation over the past couple of months have intensified calls from politicians including Fed Chairman Powell, to show "patience" when deciding when to cut rates. Meanwhile, experts said that the dollar could receive additional support this week if the March inflation report indicates that the CPI rose by 0.4% m/m again. Part of this increase will be due to higher gasoline prices during the month, and excluding food and energy, the core consumer price index is expected to have increased by 0.3% compared to February. Inflation in the core goods sector probably returned to deflation territory in March, while inflation in the core services sector is likely to have remained virtually unchanged, as further declines in housing prices were offset by higher prices for non-housing services. Although it is believed that the prices of core goods may decrease slightly in the next few months, prices for services will need to decrease more noticeably in order to keep overall inflation on a downward path and allow the Fed to move to monetary easing. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a 4.5% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed meeting in May, and a 48.2% probability of a rate cut in June (compared to 57.9% a week earlier).
The yen fell by 0.15% against the US dollar, approaching a 34-year low, but experts warn that the growth potential of the USD/JPY is limited, and the daily range is very low due to the risk of intervention by the Japanese authorities
The euro has consolidated against the US dollar, while investors' attention is gradually shifting to the ECB meeting, the results of which will be announced on Thursday. According to forecasts, the European Central Bank (ECB) will maintain the status quo this week. Looking ahead, given recent growth and inflation trends, as well as comments from ECB policymakers, experts believe that the central bank is still on track for an initial rate cut of 25 bps in June.