The Asian Development Bank (ADB) said China's economy is likely to expand by 4.8% this year, below the government's target (about 5%) and weaker than the growth recorded in 2023 (5.2%). However, ADB still believes that China will remain a key driver of global economic growth. According to ADB forecasts, China will account for 46% of growth in developing Asian countries in 2024-2025. Currently, China accounts for 18% and 48% of global and Asian GDP, respectively, based on purchasing power parity exchange rates.
"We believe that China will play an important role for some time, given its huge role in GDP growth in the Asia-Pacific region. Although the growth of the Chinese economy is likely to continue to slow down in the coming years, it's likely to contribute the most growth of any economy in the world to global growth," the ADB said.
ADB forecasts also suggest that U.S. economic growth will slow to 1.9% this year from 2.5% in 2023, and Japan's GDP will increase by 0.6% compared with 1.9% in 2023. In addition, the ADB has revised upwards its forecasts for GDP growth in developing Asian countries in 2024, citing healthy domestic demand, which offsets the slowdown in China. Regarding the inflation outlook in the Asia-Pacific region, ADB expects inflation to decrease by 0.1% this year compared to 2023, to 3.2%.