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Ekonomické zprávy
12.04.2024

International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised its oil demand forecast for 2024

  • Global oil demand growth is currently in the middle of a slowdown and is expected to ease to 1.2 million barrels a day (mb/d) this year (-130 thousand barrels compared to the previous forecast) and 1.1 mb/d in 2025 – bringing a peak in consumption into view this decade.

  • The revision of the forecast for 2024 was due to lower-than-expected consumption in OECD countries and a decline in manufacturing activity.

  • Despite the deceleration that is forecast, this level of oil demand growth remains largely in line with the pre-Covid trend, even amid muted expectations for global economic growth this year and increased deployment of clean energy technologies.

  • Without a steep fall in oil prices, a sudden resurgence in the post-pandemic recovery or an acceleration in economic activity, it is unlikely that global oil demand growth will approach the levels seen in 2022 and 2023.

  • The pace of gains slowed substantially in the second half of 2023, and the latest data shows that the trend continued at the beginning of 2024.

  • Oil use increased by an estimated 1.6 mb/d year-on-year in the first quarter of 2024, down from 1.9 mb/d in the fourth quarter of 2023 and more than 3 mb/d during the middle of last year.

  • This easing of year-on-year demand growth is likely to continue during 2024.

  • The Chinese economy will remain the mainstay of global expansion this year. However, the growth in oil demand is projected to fall to 540 kb/d. In the absence of a dramatic acceleration in other countries, this will result in a wider global slowdown.

  • An expected slackening in economic growth, to a rate of between 4% and 5% in 2024 and 2025 – combined with the rapid domestic uptake of oil-substituting technologies such as electric vehicles (EVs) and high-speed rail – means that in 2024 and 2025, only a little over one-third of oil demand growth is expected to come from China.

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