International Energy Agency (IEA): global oil demand growth continues to decelerate

Global oil demand вырос в 1H24 на 800 kb/d y-o-y - the lowest since 2020.

Consumption в Китае contracted y-o-y for a fourth straight month in July, by 280 kb/d.

Outside of China, oil demand growth is tepid at best. Latest data for the United States show a sharp decline in gasoline deliveries in June, following unexpected strength in May.

Average annual gains of 900 kb/d in 2024, compared to 2.1 mb/d last year, will take demand to almost 103 mb/d. An increase of 950 kb/d in 2025 will be equally subdued.

World supply rose by 80 kb/d to 103.5 mb/d in August, with outages caused by a political dispute in Libya combined with maintenance in Norway and Kazakhstan offset by higher flows from Guyana, Brazil and elsewhere.

Annual gains strengthen from 660 kb/d this year to 2.1 mb/d in 2025.

Non-OPEC+ increases by 1.5 mb/d this year and next, while OPEC+ may fall by 810 kb/d in 2024 but rise by 540 kb/d next year if voluntary cuts stay in place.

Global refinery throughputs are forecast to increase by 440 kb/d to 83 mb/d in 2024, and by 630 kb/d to 83.7 mb/d next year.

Global observed oil stocks declined by 47.1 mb in July.

OECD industry stocks fell counter-seasonally by 12.3 mb in July to stand 78.5 mb below the five-year average.

Preliminary data show continued stock declines in August.

Oil prices spiraled lower in August and early September, as floundering Chinese demand and economic headwinds heightened oversupply fears.