Ekonomické zprávy
12.09.2024

U.S. bond yields rose moderately ahead of the release of U.S. data

US Treasury bond yields are showing positive dynamics, while market participants are preparing for the release of a new batch of US statistical data that may affect outlook for interest rates.

The yield on 5-year Treasury bonds increased by 2.1 basis points, reaching 3.468%, while the yield on 30-year bonds was 3.992% (+2.9 basis points). Meanwhile, the yield on 2-year Treasury bonds, reflecting expectations of short-term interest rates, rose by 2.2 basis points to 3.668%, while the yield on 10-year bonds increased to 3.678% (+2.5 basis points).

Markets weighed August inflation prints, with the consumer price index on Wednesday showing that prices rose 0.2% m/m, in line with expectations. Later today (at 12:30 GMT), the producer price index, which tracks inflation on a wholesale level, will be presented. Economists expect producer prices to rise by 0.1% m/m, as in July, but in annual terms, the growth rate accelerated to 2.5% per annum from 2.4% per annum. Also at 12:30 GMT, the initial jobless claims report for last week will be released, while consensus estimates suggest a slight increase - to 230 thousand from 227 thousand a week earlier. These data will appear on the eve of the next Fed meeting (September 17-18), at which a rate cut is expected. Traders are however split on how big the rate cut will be. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a 13% probability of a 0.5% rate cut in September (down from 40% the week before), and a 87% probability of a 0.25% rate cut (up from 60% the week before).

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