| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 06:30 | Switzerland | Consumer Price Index (MoM) | September | 0% | -0.1% | -0.3% |
| 06:30 | Switzerland | Consumer Price Index (YoY) | September | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.8% |
| 07:55 | Germany | Services PMI | September | 51.2 | 50.6 | 50.6 |
| 08:00 | Eurozone | Services PMI | September | 52.9 | 50.5 | 51.4 |
| 08:30 | United Kingdom | Purchasing Manager Index Services | September | 53.7 | 52.8 | 52.4 |
USD appreciated against most of its major rivals in the European session on Thursday as investors continued to monitor developments in the Middle East while awaiting a slew of crucial economic releases in the U.S., which could shed light on the health of the world’s largest economy and influence the markets’ bets on prospects of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cutting.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), measuring the U.S. currency's value relative to a basket of foreign currencies, increased 0.24% from the previous close to 101.93.
Israel bombed Lebanon's capital - Beirut - overnight and is reportedly preparing to attack Iran’s strategic infrastructure, including energy facilities, in response to its massive missile strike on Tuesday. Lingering concerns about a potential escalation in the Middle East fueled demand for safe havens, supporting USD.
Today, investors will receive the U.S. Labor Department's weekly statistics on jobless claims and the ISM’s September PMI for the U.S. services sector. Friday will bring the key U.S. labour market figures for September.
Yesterday’s report from ADP, which showed a stronger-than-anticipated but still decent growth in private payrolls (+143,000) in September and a moderation in wage inflation, didn't significantly impact markets’ general expectations either of the Fed’s interest rate path or soft landing for the U.S. economy.
According to CME FedWatch, money markets continue to price in 75 basis points of rate decreases by the Fed by the end of the year. For the U.S. central bank’s next meetings in November, they see a 65.3% probability of a 25-basis-point rate reduction and a 34.7% probability of a bigger cut - by 50 basis points.