International Energy Agency (IEA): global oil demand growth remains subdued as China slows

IEA forecasts global demand to grow by 921,000 barrels a day in 2024 (+59,000 barrels compared to the previous forecast), largely due to stronger-than-expected gasoil deliveries in OECD countries. 

Growth estimates for 2025 were slightly trimmed to 990,000 from 998,000 barrels a day.

Total global demand is still expected to average 102.8 million this year and 103.8 million barrels a day in 2025 

The slowdown in growth from recent years reflect the end of the post-pandemic release of pent-up demand and below-par underlying global economic conditions, as well as clean energy technology deployment.

China's marked slowdown has been the main drag on demand, with its growth this year expected to average just a tenth of the 1.4 million barrels a day increase in 2023

Global oil supply rose by 290 kb/d in October to 102.9 mb/d, as the return of Libyan barrels to the market more than offset lower Kazakh and Iranian supplies.

Non-OPEC+ producers will boost supply by roughly 1.5 mb/d in both 2024 and 2025.

Production from OPEC+ is expected to decline by 820,000 barrels a day this year and to rise by 560,000 barrels a day next year.

Our current balances suggest that even if the OPEC+ cuts remain in place, global supply exceeds demand by more than 1 mb/d next year.

Global oil inventories plunged by 47.5 mb in September, to their lowest level since January, led by a sharp draw in OECD oil products and non-OECD crude oil stocks. 

OECD industry stocks fell by 36.4 mb to 2 799 mb, 95.3 mb below the five-year average. 

Provisional data suggest total global stocks decreased for a fifth consecutive month in October.