The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has trimmed its growth projections for developing Asia, warning of potential risks from the U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's proposed trade and fiscal policies.
The region, covering 46 Asia-Pacific countries excluding Japan, Australia, and New Zealand, is now expected to grow by 4.9% in 2024 and 4.8% in 2025, down slightly from earlier estimates of 5.0% and 4.9%.
The downward revision reflects weaker-than-expected third-quarter performance and a softer consumption outlook in some economies.
Growth forecasts for China remain steady at 4.8% in 2024 and 4.5% in 2025, but India’s projections were lowered to 6.5% in 2024 (from 7.0%) and 7.0% in 2025 (from 7.2%).
The ADB highlighted potential risks from U.S. policy shifts, including higher tariffs on Chinese goods, immigration crackdowns, and extended tax cuts, which could dampen growth and elevate inflation in the region. However, the full impact is expected beyond the current forecast horizon.
Geopolitical tensions and a potential downturn in China’s property market are additional risks. On the inflation front, the ADB revised its forecasts downward to 2.7% in 2024 (from 2.8%) and 2.6% (from 2.9%) in 2025, citing easing global commodity prices.