| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 07:00 | United Kingdom | Average Earnings, 3m/y | October | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.2% |
| 07:00 | United Kingdom | Average earnings ex bonuses, 3 m/y | October | 4.9% | 5% | 5.2% |
| 07:00 | United Kingdom | Claimant count | November | -10.9 | 28.2 | 0.3 |
| 07:00 | United Kingdom | ILO Unemployment Rate | October | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.3% |
During today's Asian trading, the US dollar consolidated against major currencies as market participants took a wait-and-see attitude ahead of the Fed meeting, the results of which will be announced tomorrow.
The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) rose by 0.10% to 106.97. Economists expect the Fed to cut the interest rate again at the end of the December meeting - by 0.25%, up 4.5% - despite the fact that yesterday's data indicated an unexpected pickup in US services sector activity in December. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a 95.4% probability of a 0.25% rate cut in December (compared to 88.9% a week earlier), while the probability of an additional rate cut in January is 16.3%. Meanwhile, experts said that the strength of the economy increases bond yields and supports the dollar, and therefore the neutral setting for rates may be higher than first thought. Fed officials' median long-run interest rate projection was 2.9% in September. Market pricing implies almost no chance of rates being that low by December next year. Against this background, the Fed is likely to be more concerned about the resumption of inflation and signals a very cautious approach to policy easing in the future. Meanwhile, today investors will analyze a block of US statistical data, namely the retail sales report for November, industrial production data for November and the NAHB housing market index for December.
The yen rose by 0.10% against the US dollar, breaking a 6-day decline caused by a decrease in the likelihood of an interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan at its meeting this Thursday. The results of the Ueda Yagi Tanshi survey, which was conducted from December 12 to 16 among 150 banks, securities firms, insurers and other financial institutions, showed that more than 90% of respondents do not predict a tightening of monetary policy this week. Of the total, 91% said they expect the Bank of Japan to keep interest rates unchanged at 0.25% this week. But 95% of the respondents expect the overnight call rate, which the BOJ sets as its policy target, to rise three months from now, up from 67% in the previous survey in October.