| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 06:45 | Switzerland | Unemployment Rate (non s.a.) | December | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.8% |
| 07:45 | France | Industrial Production, m/m | November | -0.3% | 0% | 0.2% |
| 07:45 | France | Consumer spending | November | -0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
During today's Asian trading, the US dollar rose slightly against major currencies, while market participants took a wait-and-see attitude ahead of the publication of key data on the US labor market, which will help clarify the trajectory of the Fed's monetary policy.
The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) rose by 0.08% to 109.26. Since the beginning of the week, the index has added 0.28%, and is preparing to record the 6th consecutive weekly increase, which is the longest running series since 2023. As for today's data, economists believe that employment growth in December returned to its latest trend and amounted to 160 thousand. Bad weather and labor strikes have caused volatility in the latest monthly hiring figures. For example, hiring accelerated in November as employers added 227,000 new jobs during the month after adding just 36,000 a month earlier due to these one-time factors. Recent volatility aside, the labor market has clearly softened in the past year. Over the past six months, nonfarm payrolls growth has averaged about 140,000 per month. At the beginning of 2024, this figure was approaching 220 thousand. As for the hiring situation in 2025, experts expect that weaker demand for new workers and a slowdown in labor supply growth will lead to a slowdown in monthly net hiring to about 125,000 people, and the unemployment rate this year will be about 4.3%. But going back to the December data, experts said that anything stronger than expected would add to the case for fewer Federal Reserve rate cuts and may set off another round of selling in jittery bond markets. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a 6.9% probability of a 0.25% rate cut in January (compared to 10.7% a week ago), while the probability of an additional rate cut in March is 37.9%. Overall, markets have scaled back expectations for Fed's cuts in 2025 to about 40 basis points, while concerns about President-elect Donald Trump's potentially inflationary program have helped boost longer-term yields