| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 07:00 | Germany | Retail sales, real unadjusted, y/y | November | -0.1% | -0.5% | -2.4% |
During today's Asian trading, the US dollar rose moderately against major currencies, and is preparing to record the largest weekly increase since July amid reassessment of the prospects of easing monetary policy by the Federal Reserve. Investors are also preparing for the release of key data on the US labor market.
The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) rose by 0.20% to 102.62. Since the beginning of the week, the index has added 1.23%. However, the situation may change after the publication of the employment report. Experts expect that in December the nonfarm payroll increased by 168 thousand. This will represent a slight slowdown compared to November (+199 thousand), but will be in line with the trend decline, albeit a bumpy one, in payrolls that has been in place since mid-2022. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is projected to rise to 3.8% from 3.7%. If the data points to further weakening of the economy, this may affect expectations regarding the timing of the Fed's interest rate cut. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a 62.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed meeting in March 2024 and a 91.4% probability of a rate cut in May 2024, with less than 140 basis points of cuts priced in for this year.
The yen fell by 0.25% against the US dollar, reaching its lowest level since December 13, while since the beginning of the week the yen has fallen by 2.8% (the largest drop since August 2022). The yen is being pressured by lower expectations of the Bank of Japan exiting its ultra-loose monetary policy in the near term, with concerns over the earthquake that hit western Japan earlier this week casting further doubts on a policy shift.