| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 00:30 | Australia | Trade Balance | November | 7.660 | 7.5 | 11.437 |
During today's Asian trading, the US dollar declined moderately against major currencies, while market participants are preparing for the publication of US inflation data, which may strengthen the likelihood of easing the Fed's monetary policy.
The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) fell by 0.16% to 102.20. The consumer price index (CPI), which will be released at 13:30 GMT, is the next likely driver of the dollar's direction. Economists forecast a slight recovery in the overall CPI - to 3.2% year on year from 3.1% in November, as well as a further slowdown in the core CPI - from 4.0% to 3.8% (the lowest value since the beginning of 2021). According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a 67.1% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed meeting in March 2024 and a 96.0% probability of a rate cut in May 2024, with almost 140 basis points of cuts priced in for this year.
The yen rose 0.25% against the US dollar, reacting to the news that the Bank of Japan has revised the economic assessment of two regions of the country. The Central bank said that economies showed some recovery in all nine regions, despite the impact of rising prices and a slowdown in the growth of foreign economies. As a result, the Central Bank raised the economic assessment for two regions, lowered it for one region (Osaka) and left it unchanged for the other six regions. Meanwhile, the Central Bank said that national companies are increasingly seeking to raise wages, but warned of high uncertainty about how large such an increase will be. "Although the degree varies from region to region, the momentum for wage increases appears to be strengthening this year at a slightly faster pace than last year. However, quite a few small and medium-sized firms are still cautious about raising wages due to profit constraints," the Central bank added.
The Australian dollar rose 0.3% against the US dollar, helped by Australian trade data. The Australian Bureau of Statistics said the trade surplus rose to A$11.437 billion in November from A $7.660 billion in October (revised from A$7.129 billion). That exceeded expectations for a surplus of A$7.50 billion. Exports rose by 1.7% mom, to A $46.314 billion, while imports slumped by 7.9% mom, to A $34.877 billion.