| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 02:00 | China | Retail Sales y/y | December | 10.1% | 8% | 7.4% |
| 02:00 | China | Industrial Production y/y | December | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.8% |
| 02:00 | China | Fixed Asset Investment | December | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3% |
| 02:00 | China | GDP y/y | Quarter IV | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.2% |
| 07:00 | United Kingdom | HICP ex EFAT, Y/Y | December | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.1% |
| 07:00 | United Kingdom | HICP, Y/Y | December | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4% |
| 07:00 | United Kingdom | HICP, m/m | December | -0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% |
During today's Asian trading, the US dollar rose slightly against major currencies, as market participants revised the likelihood of easing the Fed's monetary policy after yesterday's statements by Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller.
The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) rose by 0.11% to 103.47 (the highest value since December 13). Yesterday, the index jumped 0.93% as Waller said that while the U.S. is "within striking distance" of the Fed's 2% inflation goal, the Fed should not rush towards cuts in its interest rate until it is clear lower inflation will be sustained. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a 59.5% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed meeting in March and a 97.4% probability of a rate cut in May, with 157 basis points of cuts priced in for this year. However, these expectations may change after the publication of December retail sales data (at 13:30 GMT). Retail sales surprised with growth in November, rising 0.3% over the month. Overall, consumer spending is expected to show another significant increase in the last quarter of 2023, and December seems to match this assumption. Data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis on credit card usage shows that total spending in retail and catering increased in December compared to the previous month, and a recent Adobe Analytics report showed that online purchases during the holidays increased by 4.9%. Given this momentum, retail sales are expected to have increased by 0.4% in December. Excluding cars, a more modest 0.2% increase is expected. Experts also expect the growth rate of holiday sales to exceed 4% year-on-year, which is a solid but muted increase compared to the exceptional growth in spending over the past few years.
The Chinese yuan fell 0.1% against the US dollar, updating a 2-month low amid mixed Chinese economic data. The National Bureau of Statistics said that in the 4th quarter, GDP grew by 5.2% per annum. Growth accelerated compared to the 3rd quarter (+4.9%), but missed economists' forecast of 5.3%. The acceleration in the fourth quarter growth largely reflects the low base of comparison as the pandemic disrupted economic activity in the fourth quarter of 2022. In the whole year of 2023, economic growth exceeded the government target of around 5%. GDP grew 5.2% in 2023 after rising 3% in the previous year. Meanwhile, experts warn that while some short-term momentum is expected from policy easing, this is unlikely to prevent a renewed slowdown later this year.