According to the report from the National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT), industrial production increased by 1.1% in December, almost offsetting the November drop (-1.3%, revised from -1.5%), and exceeding economists' forecasts (+0.9%). The production of consumer goods increased by 3% compared to November, while the production of capital goods rose by 1.6%. Production of intermediate goods increased by 0.8%, and production of energy fell by 2%. On average for the 4th quarter, industrial production fell by 0.5% compared to the previous three months. For the whole of 2023, the output dropped by 2.5% compared to 0.4% increase in 2022.
In annual terms, industrial production fell by 2.1% in December after a decline of 2.9% in November (revised from -3.1%). It was the 11th decline in a row. Consensus estimates suggested a reduction of 2.2%. Among the main sectors, growth was recorded only in the capital goods sector (+0.7%). Meanwhile, production declined in the consumer goods sector (-1.3%), the intermediate goods sector (-3.3%) and the energy sector (-4.4%). Among the sectors of economic activity, the largest growth was recorded in the coke and petroleum products manufacturing sector (+6.0%), electrical equipment manufacturing (+5.5%), as well as the food, beverage and tobacco industries (+2.6%).
According to official data, Italy's GDP grew by 0.2% in the 4th quarter of 2023, slightly accelerating compared to the 3rd quarter (+0.1%). Meanwhile, recent leading indicators such as consumer and business confidence, as well as surveys of purchasing managers, indicate a moderate acceleration in growth in the 1st quarter of 2024. In its latest forecast, the Bank of Italy estimates GDP will slow down further in 2024, down to 0.6% from 0.7% in 2023.