| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 07:00 | United Kingdom | Average Earnings, 3m/y | December | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.8% |
| 07:00 | United Kingdom | Average earnings ex bonuses, 3 m/y | December | 6.7% | 6% | 6.2% |
| 07:00 | United Kingdom | ILO Unemployment Rate | December | 4.2% | 4% | 3.8% |
| 07:00 | United Kingdom | Claimant count | January | 5.5 | 15.2 | 14.1 |
During today's Asian trading, the US dollar consolidated against major currencies as investors were cautious ahead of the release of US inflation data, which may affect the timing of the Fed's monetary policy easing. Trading was largely subdued in Asia with markets in China and Hong Kong still closed for the Lunar New Year holidays
The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) rose by 0.02% to 104.18. As for the US data, economists expect that in January the consumer price index increased by 0.2% for the month and by 3% per annum. Falling gasoline prices and weaker grocery store price increases should hold back overall growth. Core inflation is likely to have increased by 0.3% on a monthly basis and by 3.7% per annum. Inflation data will continue to attract the Fed's main attention this year as it tries to pinpoint the timing of rate cuts. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a 13.5% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed meeting in March and a 58.0% probability of a rate cut in May.
The yen fell 0.2% against the US dollar, reaching its lowest level since November 20. Since the beginning of the year, the yen has fallen by more than 5% as investors have revised their expectations about the scale and pace of the Fed's interest rate cuts. In addition, experts believe that the Bank of Japan will oppose aggressive rate hikes, even if it abandons the policy of negative interest rates this year.
The New Zealand dollar fell by 0.42% against the US dollar after the results of a study published by the country's Central Bank showed that in the 1st quarter inflation expectations fell to 2.5% (the lowest value in 2.5 years) from 2.76% in the 4th quarter.
The pound rose 0.2% against the US dollar, helped by labor market data. According to the report from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), from October to December 2022, the unemployment rate (for those aged 16 years and over) decreased by 0.2% compared to the previous three-month period (through September), and amounted to 3.8% (the lowest value since the period between February and April 2023). The data also showed that from October to December, the growth in average total pay (including bonuses) and regular pay (excluding bonuses) was 5.8% per annum (+6.7% in November) and 6.2% per annum (+6.7% in November). Economists had expected an increase by 5.6% and 6.0%, respectively.