| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 00:30 | Australia | Westpac Consumer Confidence | April | -1.8% | 0.5% | -2.4% |
| 01:30 | Australia | National Australia Bank's Business Confidence | March | | -3 | 1 |
| 05:00 | Japan | Consumer Confidence | March | 39.1 | 40 | 39.5 |
During today's Asian trading, the US dollar consolidated against major currencies, remaining near a 2-week low, as investors are cautious ahead of the release of US inflation data.
The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) rose by 0.02% to 104.16. Pressure on the dollar comes from a revision of forecasts regarding the pace and scale of the Fed's interest rate cuts this year. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a 0% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed meeting in May, and a 51.3% probability of a rate cut in June (compared to 63.7% a week earlier). In addition, speculation has intensified that the Fed may revise its forecasts for three 0.25% interest rate cuts this year. Markets are already favoring only two interest rate cuts this year. However, many market participants argue that the March inflation report, scheduled for publication on Wednesday, will be more important for Fed policymakers than the latest employment report, and will help determine the number of rate cuts and whether they will begin in June or later. Meanwhile, experts said that the dollar could receive additional support if the March inflation report indicates that the CPI rose by 0.4% m/m again. Part of this increase will be due to higher gasoline prices during the month, and excluding food and energy, the core consumer price index is expected to have increased by 0.3% compared to February. Inflation in the core goods sector probably returned to deflation territory in March, while inflation in the core services sector is likely to have remained virtually unchanged, as further declines in housing prices were offset by higher prices for non-housing services.
The yen fell 0.07% against the US dollar to 151.89, coming close to a 34-year low (151.975) reached last month, while Japanese officials continue their attempts to protect the currency. Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said on Tuesday that authorities were not ruling out any options to deal with the excessive movement of the yen, repeating his warning that Tokyo was ready to act against the currency's recent sharp drop. Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said that if the data continues to point to an acceleration in inflation, the Central Bank will have to consider reducing the degree of monetary stimulus. Overall, the threat of intervention from Tokyo has kept the dollar from breaching the closely-watched 152 yen level, even as U.S. Treasury yields climb.