The latest Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) showed that respondents' expectations for headline inflation, as measured in terms of the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), were unchanged across all horizons. Meanwhile, the expected profile of the unemployment rate was revised downwards slightly over the entire horizon. The SPF for the second quarter of 2024 was conducted between 18 and 21 March 2024 and 61 responses were received.
Headline HICP inflation was expected to decline from 2.4% in 2024 to 2.0% in both 2025 and 2026.
Expectations for core HICP inflation were also unchanged for the years from 2024 to 2026.
Longer-term expectations for headline and core HICP inflation were unchanged at 2.0%.
Respondents expected real GDP growth of 0.5% in 2024, 1.4% in 2025 and 1.4% in 2026.
The expectations for 2024 and 2025 were revised down and up by 0.1% respectively, while those for 2026 were unchanged.
Respondents’ short-term GDP outlook was for a gradual strengthening of economic activity throughout 2024.
Longer-term growth expectations remained unchanged at 1.3%.
Respondents continued to expect the unemployment rate to increase in 2024, to 6.6%, but to decline to 6.5% in 2026 and to 6.4% in the longer term.