| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 09:00 | Eurozone | Industrial production, (MoM) | February | -3.0% | 0.8% | 0.8% |
USD weakened against most of its major rivals in the European session on Monday as investors waited for the release of the U.S. March retail sales figures later in the day, which would shed light on consumer spending trends and could impact expectations for the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate cuts this year.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), measuring the U.S. currency's value relative to a basket of foreign currencies, fell 0.15% from the previous close to 105.88, retreating from a 5-1/2-month high of 106.11 hit on Friday.
Economists predict a 0.3% MoM gain in retail sales for March, following a 0.6% MoM increase in February.
Last week’s hotter-than-expected U.S. March consumer price index (CPI) report justified the ongoing hawkishness of the Fed’s policymakers and prompted the recalibration of the markets’ rate cut expectations. The probability of a rate reduction at the June meeting of the U.S. central bank plunged to only 22.5% compared to 58.8% one month ago. Forecasts for the number of rate cuts were also trimmed. Now, markets see only two rate decreases by the end of 2024, whereas at the start of the year, they bet on six rate cuts.
In the coming days, market participants will also pay close attention to the remarks of a number of the Fed officials, including Daly on Tuesday, Mester on Wednesday, Bostic on Thursday, and Goolsbee on Friday.
The officials are expected to echo the recent statements of their multiple colleagues, emphasising the need to see more progress in the fight against inflation before policy easing.
Other important events in the coming week include releases of a batch of labour market figures (the NAHB housing market index, building permits, housing starts, existing home sales), industrial production data, weekly jobless claims statistics, and the Fed’s Beige Book. In addition, conflicts in the Middle East will remain in investors’ focus.