| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 01:30 | Australia | Trade Balance | August | 5.636 | 5.8 | 5.644 |
| 06:30 | Switzerland | Consumer Price Index (MoM) | September | 0% | -0.1% | -0.3% |
| 06:30 | Switzerland | Consumer Price Index (YoY) | September | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.8% |
During today's Asian trading, the US dollar rose slightly against major currencies, reaching its highest level since September 3, as recent US data increased the likelihood that the Fed will not rush to ease monetary policy. The escalation of tensions in the Middle East has also strengthened demand for the US dollar, which is considered a safe haven asset.
The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) rose by 0.13% to 101.81. Since the beginning of the week, the index has added 1.42%. Meanwhile, yesterday's labor market report from ADP, which exceeded economists' forecasts, raised expectations for a strong non-farm payrolls reading that could be critical for dictating the pace of Fed easing. Economists expect nonfarm payrolls to rise by 140,000. That’s similar to the August increase and would leave three-month average job growth near its weakest since mid-2019. Forecasts also suggest that the unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, and average hourly earnings increased by 0.3% m/m. Experts said that if the new data exceeds forecasts, it may reduce the bets of aggressive Fed easing. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a 36.1% probability of a 0.50% rate cut at the November meeting (down from 49.3% a week earlier) and a 47.7% probability of a 0.25% rate cut in December (compared to 49.9% a week earlier), with a 0.7% rate cut expected by the end of the year.
The pound fell 0.7% against the US dollar, reaching its lowest level since September 19 amid statements by the head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey. He warned that the Central Bank could accelerate interest rate cuts if there is new good news on inflation, but the conflict in the Middle East could lead to higher oil prices. In September, the Bank of England left the interest rate at 5%, but investors expect a 0.25% rate cut at the November meeting.