China's exports likely accelerated in December, rising by an estimated 7.3% year-on-year after increasing by 6.7% in November, as manufacturers rushed to ship goods ahead of potential U.S. tariff escalations under President-elect Donald Trump. Imports are projected to have declined by 1.5% after falling 3.9% in November, reflecting cautious purchasing amid U.S. semiconductor export controls, according to a Reuters poll.
Despite economic challenges such as deflationary pressures and a prolonged property crisis, China's trade data suggests continued export resilience. Economists anticipate a December trade surplus of $99.8 billion, up from $97.4 billion in November.
Views on export growth diverge, with JP Morgan predicting +7.9% and Standard Chartered expecting a slower +5.4%. Imports are expected to contract for the third consecutive month, although South Korea's 8.6% increase in shipments to China hints at recovering demand.
However, uncertainties persist as Trump proposes tariffs of up to 60% on Chinese imports, raising fears of a renewed trade war. Additionally, tensions with the EU remain high due to tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, prompting Beijing to launch anti-dumping investigations into European goods.
Economists urge China to rebalance its economy by reducing reliance on exports and focusing on consumption-driven growth. Policymakers have promised measures to stimulate domestic demand and boost consumption to ensure sustained economic momentum.