China’s export growth accelerated in December 2024, propelling the annual trade surplus to a record high of $992.1 billion, despite looming trade uncertainties. Exports were up 5.9% and imports climbed 1.1% in the whole year of 2024.
Meanwhile, in December, outbound shipments rose 10.7% year-on-year, surpassing both November's 6.7% growth and economists’ forecasts of 7.3%. Imports also surprised with a 1.0% increase, defying expectations of a 1.5% decline, marking their strongest performance since July. The trade surplus climbed to $104.84 billion in December, up from $97.44 billion in November, exceeding predictions of $100 billion. Analysts attribute this resilience to U.S. businesses stockpiling goods ahead of anticipated tariff hikes under President Trump’s administration, set to intensify trade pressures.
Despite these gains, challenges loom. China faces potential setbacks from U.S. tariffs and disputes with the EU over electric vehicle tariffs of up to 45.3%, jeopardizing its export ambitions. Domestically, the economy remains burdened by a property market slump and weak consumer confidence, although recent fiscal measures show signs of stabilizing growth.
Factory activity expanded for the third consecutive month in December, while services and construction sectors showed recovery. South Korea’s 8.6% rise in shipments to China highlights sustained demand for technology products.
Looking ahead, Chinese leaders aim to offset external headwinds with proactive fiscal policies and monetary easing in 2025, targeting 5% economic growth.